Translate

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Hoaxers Target Britain's New Pollster


The recent MORI Poll which reduced Cameron's majority to 6%, and gave Labour a large London majority, based on views expressed by a mere 63 people, was heavily criticised on Political Betting. This poll was not only of dubious authenticity, but it was used far and wide across all media to further the cause of pushing the 'Hung Parliament' narrative.

This narrative started amongst Conservative europhiles, with first Michael Heseltine mentioning it as a possibility on BBC Hard Talk, and then Ken Clarke joining in with a 'Hung Parliament' comment during an interview. It stood out a mile as all polls until that moment had predicted a Cameron lead of up to 18%, or down to 12%. How, one thought, could a Hung Parliament possibly be calculated from these projected voting figures?

I wrote that it could only be a matter of time before a poll was 'produced' lending credence to the Hung parliament narrative, or the whole thing would start looking ludicrous. The moment I saw the MORI poll, as if created to perfection just to fulfil this requirement, I immediately commented to this effect in various locations including on Political Betting. The other commenters reacted strongly to what I was saying, some agreeing, some not, but all taking note in one form or another.

Mike Smithson had by chance commissioned his own poll with Angus Read Strategies, a Canadian pollster with no previous afiliations to UK media. When this poll, which took place in the same week as MORI gave Cameron not a 6% lead but an 18% lead, the Political Betting site was filled with comments, that there must be some kind of relationship between the narrative requirements of the media, and the outcome of supposedly objective polling. The seeds of suspicion had been sown.

The urgent need of the narrationists was then to undermine the credibility of Mike Smithson, his Political Betting site, and his new pollster. In the past, Smithson had come very close to expressing suspicion that some byelection results looked decidedly odd, such as and especially the one in Glenrothes, where the Register had disappeared.

Others, like me, for example, pull no punches in our views as to what is happening. From the evidence we have, it seems entirely possible that Elections in Britain are being rigged on a regular basis, and possibly even the results of General Elections, of which, the Election in 2005, was heavily affected by postal vote harvesting in marginal seats.

What the narrationists cannot tolerate is a change in the awareness of the British public about this. They are used to coordinating news stories, poll results and elections to bring about the results they desire without any comment or interference from anyone, at all times, keeping an EU-compliant Prime Minister in power.

In many countries around the world such as the Philippines where I have lived for the last three years, the public know very well that their elections are rigged to order, with President Gloria Macapagal even being asked by a member of her staff how big a majority she would like, in a recorded and widely distributed telephone call (The notorious 'Hello Garci' Tape). Here they just shrug their shoulders.

But in Britain people have no idea what is going on, and all serious political commentators are worried about stating any doubts if they have them, as they would be ridiculed, with most people unable to believe that things have come to such a pass.

So people like Mike Smithson, who occasionally expresses his doubts and is obviously nosing around the issue by hiring his own previously untainted pollster, become a target.

It is no surprise that today he sees that he has been made the victim of what he calls 'an elaborate hoax' where he was tricked into believing that a new poll gave Cameron a big lead. He duly publicised the news, not suspecting he was being set up for a fall, which was intended to undermine his credibility and that of the new pollster he has hired, Angus Read Strategies.

This is yet more evidence, not of Mike Smithson's lack of skill as a commentator on voting patterns, but evidence that the narrationists plan to rig the election, to win it with a Hung Parliament, neutralising Cameron's repatriation of powers programme, and that they expect to get away with it. Smithson is being warned.

In the end people will have to decide what they prefer - to avoid the ridicule of stating their doubts as to the authenticity of British election results - or to start talking openly about their doubts and suspicions, and get something down.

The British public are a million miles from being able to take this in, but the regulars down at www.politicalbetting.com, who live and breathe polling and election results must surely be able to make the leap, especially now their site is being hoaxed by the narrationists in order to discredit its contents.

See Mike Smithson's post on PB Sorry Folks. We've Been Subject To An Elaborate Hoax.

FROM Angus Read Strategies Website comes some interesting advice about predicting the results of elections, as follows -

Emotions and Voting -

Political choices are like most purchasing decisions—they are largely driven by emotional reactions and connections. In this case study we look at Party leaders in pre-election 2008. We measure reactions to the leaders using Plutchik’s model of emotions.

Emotions are very powerful predictors of vote intentions. We found that emotions typically explain over half of why a voter will or will not vote for someone. In this respect, emotional reactions are more than twice as powerful a predictor as which party they voted for last time and roughly 10 times as powerful a predictor as demographics like age, gender, education or income.


Stick to your guns, Mike. Don't surrender any turf to the narrationists.

The first whiff of gunpowder in your nostrils demonstrates that you are really onto something in trying to improve the performance of British media pollsters. In politics you judge your success purely in how much anger you generate. Sadly. And Mike, Boy are you pissing these people off!!!!! Keep it up, mate!!!

Do not under any circumstances back down. This is seriously important stuff that you are right in the middle of. This kind of attack is designed to get you to doubt yourself. Don't let it. Keep observing, doubting, expressing your instinctive reaction to the information you see. Good Luck. Your decision to hire Angus Read Srrategies right at the beginning of the biggest election rigging exercise in British history could be the best call of your career. Stick with it.

And by the way, who is the person behind the creation of the Hung Parliament narrative, someone with enough power to call up compliant editorial, 'outlier' opinion polls, fixed by elections and be sufficiently able to plan hoaxes and other stunts to undermine opposition to his will? Might it be this man?



Take Charles Moore's article from today's Telegraph HERE. Moore's final paragraph reads thus -

I suppose the big question about the First Secretary of State is the same as the question about New Labour itself. Has he driven forward the necessary task of modernising and moderating a party that desperately needed to be able once again to run the country? Or has he pushed our public life into a culture of chicanery, political lies and the circumvention of parliamentary democracy? The answer is, both.

If the cap fits, wear it.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Cash Will Burst The Quantitative Easing Rally



Yesterday the news of a major default by a government-owned Dubai fund of $3 billion sent shockwaves around the financial world. Strangely, shortly after the event was publicised, and shares were tumbling, the London Stock Exchange trading system and screens went down, and were out for nearly four hours, stopping all trades for much of the day, until the US markets were open.

The same thing also happened last September when the London closedown lasted the whole of a Monday. That coincidentally was the weekend that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were announced as being effectively insolvent, requiring intervention by the US government, and shares might otherwise have been hit by panic selling.

It's odd how the two ''technically caused'' outages were immediately preceded by potentially market stability-threatening events.

I wonder if the UK government secretly has the powers to 'pull the plug' on the markets while it races around to assure all parties not to panic.

From the FT September 8th 2008 -

Problems have happened before, but never on a day like this when the market was coming to terms with the enormous Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac news from over the weekend,” said Andy Stewart, chief executive of Cenkos Securities.

In either event, the markets are still holding for now. But what if a couple more countries like Dubai were to default? The vast quantitative easing programme which Gordon Brown claims is saving the world by driving up asset prices in the fastest rising asset bubble in history, might suddenly burst. Governments might suddenly find that the mass lending to banks and governments to stem the tide of debt default is running out of support. Then what would he do?

Maybe it would be time to face the real music, and accept that the world's debts have got to be unwound, and that Britain, for example, will not be able to issue endless gilts assuming future generations will buy them. Cuts might be cash-driven, all of a sudden, and no longer a political decision.

Rule by Gordon Brown's cheque book, which has splurged trillions across the planet for over a decade, would suddenly be over. The punch bowl would be gone, and the largest hangover in history would begin.

No wonder he's so quick to react to any signs of panic.

He is just hoping his luck will hold til March 2010, the likely election date, of course. As for the poor London stock market, its reputation as a reliable trading platform is being dragged down to New Labour levels of non-performance. Compared to Brown's chances of re-election or his chances of pulling off a Hung Parliament, the future of London as the world's premier financial centre must seem, relatively of miniscule significance.

CARTOON - By Jeffrey Hill.

Fraser Nelson in The Spectator sees parallels with Brown's QE programme and that of Japan's after its bubble burst. See HERE. The British and American lending was intended to provide fuel for lending to business and consumers. But banks have been unwilling to take on much more lending exposure to these.

The money has ended up being lent to organisations buying securities, or shares in UK-speak. In the US $5-10 billion a day is being lent to securities-buying, boosting the asset markets which otherwise were heading towards depression causing levels. The problem will be when the tap is turned off, or if the debts of countries lending in the coordinated quantitative easing programme, become unsustainable.

Reality will have to be faced at some time. In Brown's case that will be after the election if his luck holds.

The Greek Euro Drifts Away Towards Oblivion


How long can the Euro carry on pretending? The suggestion that the Euro is truly a single currency gets harder to maintain by the month. There is such a wide gap between the credibility of for example, the Greek Euro and the German Euro, that they have two different Credit Default Swap rates, and different borrowing rates alongside. If the Euro was really a single currency, the rates of all Euro nations would be comparable compared to countries outside the block.

They are not.

This piece from the FT tells the story.

A watershed in the derivatives world could be reached this week: the cost of insuring against a bond default by Greece, using credit derivatives, may rise above the comparable metric for Turkey for the first time.

Just two short years ago, that would have seemed almost inconceivable to most credit default swaps traders, never mind proud Greek politicians. After all, in 2007, the Turkish CDS spread – like that of many “emerging markets” – was trading at about 500 basis points on perceived fiscal risks.

Greece, by contrast, was nearer 15bp, because it was a member of the European Monetary Union, and its euro-denominated bonds were considered quasi-protected by other euro states.

But in the past year the fiscal positions of many emerging markets nations, such as Turkey, have become more favourable relative to the western world. Meanwhile, Greece has plunged into a profound budgetary mess, notwithstanding its use of the euro.

Thus on Thursday – as markets reeled from the Dubai shock and investors fled from risk – the bid-offer spread on five-year Greek CDSs was 201bp-208bp, according to Markit. That of Turkish CDSs was 207bp-212bp, leaving them neck and neck (and according to Bloomberg data, in some trades the Greek CDS was even higher than Turkey).


The next phase of the credit crunch is not going to be banks or families in debt, but countries. Yesterday Dubai shocked the world by defaulting on its debts. Markets in the region tumbled. The LSE was closed for 'technical reasons' preventing a more general rout.

But in truth Dubai is no more in trouble than Greece. If a western country were to default on its debts, the impact would be massively greater, possibly undermining the single currency experiment in its wake. Only if Germany will step in and carry the patient will the Euro survive. And Germany may or may not be willing, or able, to do so.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Baroness Ashton And The Russian Secret Service


Allegations of EU links to Russian intelligence are nothing new. Litvinenko, for example, before he died from Polonium poisoning, had revealed that Romano Prodi, former Head of the EU Commission, was the FSB's most senior contact in Italy.

Now it is revealed by Nigel Farage speaking today in the European Parliament, that Baroness Ashton, the EU's choice of its new Foreign Minister, was previously the Treasurer for CND in the 1980s at a time when it was receiving very large sums from an 'únknown source'. The allegations are that she was aware that CND was being funded by the Soviets.



I would like to sound shocked. But in truth I am not. Litvinenko was going to make further revelations, which is why he was eliminated. We need to know who the agents on the inside of the EU are, and who they are working for. Once democracy has died, the totalitarians move in. Maybe we can stop them.

But any person who tries or is contemplating doing that must be aware that they face personal risks. Pim Fortuyn in Holland was about to win the Dutch elections on a platform of withdrawal from the EU, but was assassinated before he could do so.



Conservative opposition leader IDS was moving to take the Conservatives towards being a withdrawalist party, when he was toppled by a well-coordinated media coup in October 2003. His reputation was torn to shreds by Michael Crick of the BBC with his false allegations that his wife Betsy was involved in embezzlement. It has barely recovered six years later.

David Cameron has stated that he will not hold a referendum on the EU for the time being, and will try to renegotiate and repatriate powers. Up until this moment, Cameron was treated softly by the media arousing suspicion amongst his followers that he was a secret sell-out to the EU, just like Blair had been. But from the moment that he mentioned his intention to repatriate powers from the EU, the mood music has changed savagely against him.

Now he is facing a wall to wall media assault, not targeted on removing him from the Conservative leadership as yet, but on first ensuring he doesn't win a majority in the upcoming general election.



The Hung Parliament narrative is not simply media entertainment. It is a bid to block Cameron from winning a majority. First by managing expectations of the result of the coming election, and then by ensuring a Hung Parliament comes about through postal vote fraud and ballot box tampering.

Again I would like to be angry and shocked.

But as the election in 2005 was rigged to give Blair a majority, with three million postal votes harvested, most in marginal seats and in europhile seats like Ken Clarke's and David Miliband's, changing the result of the election, and no one seemed to notice or be bothered, it is hard to get excited now they seem to be doing the same thing all over again.



This time though, they will be tampering with the election result by 10% or more, when last time they rigged it with a much smaller amount of 'swing'.

But as no media is going to mention it, and as the people of Britain don't seem to care, they obviously think they are going to get away with it.

It's not shocking, as rigging is becoming so normal. Byelections with unexpected results are now commonplace. In Glenrothes the register even disappeared for the first time in British electoral history, so no checks could be made retrosepctively into what was a 'stunning' result.

It is though depressing to see a once great country and democracy brought to its knees by so much evil, without even a single voice of protest being made or heard. That's how fear works, I guess. People prefer to live, to keep their jobs and their pensions than to try to resist the onslaught that is taking place. They know something wrong is happening, but what can any single individual do to stop it acting alone?

Forgive me please that I prefer not to be silent about what I see. I try to write around the blogoshpere that the Hung Parliament narrative is not simply entertainment to sell newspapers, but is, as I say, part of a sinister programme to subvert our democracy.

The MORI Poll showing a 6% lead for the Conservatives was entirely expected, as without a poll confirming the Hung Parliament narrative, it was going to look a bit stupid. So then the Poll was produced, in which 63 Londoners were interviewed, and from that, the view was splashed all over Britain that Labour would now have a large majority in London, when all polls for two years have been indicating Cameron has a 15% lead in London.

This is surely the best example we will ever see of the power of propaganda. With all news channels and newspapers pumping the story, no one for one second stopped to say that this is all lies. No one dared stand up to the onslaught, and ask if this might all be some kind of deception. Like a flock of starlings, every single feathered bird in the media joined the instant turn of direction on command.

People can see that polls and elections are being rigged to some extent. Their suspicions are aroused. But they don't take that thought to its logical conclusion. They don't want to think the unthinkable. So I give people this thought. Why would anyone be involved in rigging the media, the polls, byelections and elections unless they expected to change the outcome, as a result of their efforts?

Would they be in the game to lose or for a draw? No. They are playing dirty because they expect to get away with it, and they expect to win.

The experience of the past indicates that they mean business. Cameron, since he declared his repatriation programme, is going to be blocked from power. That is the purpose of all these deceptions, nothing more and nothing less.

You can sit and watch events unfold step by step if you like, to check in case you feel a little queasy imagining so much evil. Or you can take the evidence already before your eyes, and see now what is planned and what will be brought about in the coming months, if you prefer. The time to fight, of course, is now, to push back the attempt to lower the expectations of Cameron's prospects, discounting his chances to nil.

They must not be allowed to feature only the rigged polls in the media that indicate a Hung Parliament is the likely outcome. The polls that show the true picture with Labour down at 22 along with the Lib Dems with Cameron at around 40%, ensuring a 100 seat majority must be handed out on leaflets bypassing television and the Press. If the media don't want the truth to be told, so the election can be more easily rigged without arousing suspicion, they must be prevented from being successful in their attempt.

The manipulators must not be allowed to play their game uninhibited. They are not to be trusted, treated with normal courtesy but as the treacherous evil and cowardly characters they truly are. Bloggers in particular, must stop treating politics as if it were an extension of the entertainment business.

This is the crushing of a free and civilised people by a faceless, murderous, secretive and cunning bureaucracy, supported by a pathetic and craven media. The British public are playing the political equivalent of cricket, still trusting the word of the umpires. Their enslavers are carrying away their freedom without a fight, or even a word of resistance.

If you doubt my thoughts to be true, you need only observe, and your doubts will be removed by observation that what I am forecasting now will come about. I would prefer you, though, to start to resist, to understand what is happening to your country, and to fight while we still have a chance.

That chance is called David Cameron.

REPORT ON THE GLENROTHES BYELECTION by Mike Smithson.



Why have the key by-election records “gone missing”?

The Glenrothes by election last November was critical to the personal standing of the prime minister. The constituency is adjacent to Gordon’s, both he and his wife campaigned there, and the Labour candidate and now MP was the head of the school where Gordon went.


The fact that the Prime Minister became so associated with the Labour campaign was highly unusual and was seen as a big political risk. The only opinion poll suggested that the party was neck and neck with the SNP.

The result was a sensation. A majority for Labour far in excess of what anybody was predicting and, as was pointed out at the time, there was the massive increase in postal votes compared with what happened in May 2005.

This was a high profile political event that added considerably to the momentum that Brown was then building up following his initial handling of the bank bailout.

So what’s happened to the marked register - the list of those who actually voted which is open to inspection? For anything to do with this election to have “gone missing” simply provides ammunition for conspiracy theorists.

This is particularly the case because the result itself was so unexpected. The SNP calls for an inquiry could become another difficult issue for Labour.

I’ve been associated with many elections over several decades and I have never known a marked register to have been lost like this.


READ THE BACKGROUND -

Why The European Union Must Go by Professor Anthony Coughlan.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Hung Parliament Narrative Needs Life Support



The latest poll to throw a spoke in the wheels of the Hung Parliament game, is the one coming from Angus Read, a Canadian pollster, new in the UK. Its methodology seems sensible according to the pro's such as Mike Smithson of www.politicalbetting.com, and its results could not be more different from the latest éffort from Ipsos MORI.

Smithson writes this morning -

The Angus Read split for London C41-L26-LD24 is in marked contrast to the Observer’s Ipsos-MORI poll which was showing a big lead for Labour.

See full report HERE.

I am pleased to see that many other commenters on PB seem to be agreeing with my theory that often polls can be ordered up to fit the current political narratives, rather than to objectively measure opinion. In fact they can be used as political devices, to convince people that black is white, or that Gordon Brown has a cat-in-hell's chance of holding level in any General Election.

See this for example, from Gabble writing a comment about the AR Poll -

Why hasn’t the Angus Reid poll been picked up by the MSM online?

I can’t find any matches with a Google News search.

Does it just look unfeasible coming the day after the Mori 6% lead was revealed?

Or, are the MSM enjoying the hung-parliament narrative too much?

by Gabble November 24th, 2009 at 10:30 pm


The other factor that gets forgotten is that Polls are also needed to prepare the ground for any electoral rigging that is planned. Before the main vote can happen, people have to be prepared so that the result of the rigged poll are not overly suspicious. That can best be achieved by manipulating opinion polls. In a pre-election period as now, the polling efforts of Ipsos MORI showing a majority for Labour in London, based on the views of a mere 63 people, are not merely incompetent, but, in my opinion, downright criminal.

Meanwhile we await the polling efforts of other 'reputable' pollsters brave enough to give the Hung Parliament nonsense another lease of polling life. Will any others, like MORI, be so daft as to give Labour a clear lead in London where Cameron is and has been streets ahead for some years?

I guess if there's enough money to be made, some pollsters would even produce a poll showing that Nick Griffin will be the next Prime Minister. This could well become the season of polling horror as politicians jockey for position ahead of the race, with the crowd being asked to believe that the ugliest are the prettiest, and so on.

In 1992 and 1997 and even in 2001 and 2005, people were still naive and could be taken for an easy ride. But in 2009, after the many long years of Blair, Iraq, Campbell, Brown and Mandelson, I don't think people are now quite as gullible as they once were.

Pollsters that wish to keep their reputations had better react to the new more astute political awareness. The 'we're the mugs who believe every word you say' days are well gone. A narrative is now seen to be a distortion of the truth, requiring the resources of the media to insert into peoples' minds, without which it would not reach their outermost thoughts or be believed as even faintly possible.

Saddam Hussein's WMD are a good example. The 'Hung Parliament' and the coming election, rigged on the back of the narrative, will be recalled as equally injurious events in the national memory, the first one when we realised that we cannot trust our own government, and now the second will be the moment we realise we are not even allowed to choose who that government is to be.

Our country's democracy will not be on life support. It will be finally dead. The only question is whether people will realise in time, and act together to stop the process of our nation's political dismemberment.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Obama Breakthrough - India


There has been so much bad press issued on behalf of President Obama of late that it is nice and reassuring to see some real progress made on the international front. The Afghanistan situation is not going to go away, and the USA needs reliable allies. Britain and the EU have proved shaky in that regard to say the least.

Pakistan has started work on tackling its internal terrorist problem belatedly, and it appears that relations with the US have improved in that department since Bush went. But now India is expressing strong support for President Obama in his efforts to bring affairs in Afghanistan to a successful conclusion.

From the FT -

Mr Singh, 77, who will hold talks with the US president in the White House on Tuesday morning and was the guest of honour on Monday night at the first state dinner since Mr Obama took office, also dropped clear hints that India would qualify as a more natural “strategic partner” for the US than China.


Singh’s visit to ‘consolidate’ US-India ties - Nov-22


Mr Obama, who visited China last week, sought but failed to secure material pledges of support from Beijing for a forthcoming increase in US troops, trainers and civilian aid workers in Afghanistan. Mr Singh offered a strong rhetorical endorsement of the US goals in Afghanistan.

“It is vitally important that all major regional and international players put their weight behind the government of Afghanistan,” Mr Singh told the Council on Foreign Relations. “This is the only way Afghanistan can meet the daunting challenges it faces.”

The Indian prime minister‘s words were also directed at Pakistan, which has long been at loggerheads with Hamid Karzai’s government. Mr Singh made it plain that India’s democratic values made it a more suitable global partner for the US than others.


This is a big change in the global picture. India was traditionally a Russian ally. But India has grown to the point where she could become a significant regional power broker, aiding the US effort in Afghanistan. The power vacuum in Central Asia left over by Russian withdrawal is gradually filling, and thankfully could now do so with virtuous powers.

Obama might yet be the great peace-making President, which some have claimed him to be, a little prematurely.

''Hung Parliament'' Left Hanging On A Thread


The online Political Betting community has severely criticised the MORI Poll published in The Observer as being 'an outlier' or based on poor fieldwork.

Mike Smithson of www.politicalbetting.com says that it is not permitted to ascribe the effectively wrong information contained in the poll, giving London a Labour majority, to a lack of integrity on behalf of the pollster, as that would be actionable.

But the commenters on his blog leave one in no doubt that this poll, which happened to be supportive of the current media 'Hung Parliament' narrative as being a load of cods.

I leave their final comments from the thread here below -

Surely any pollster’s methodology must be prone to producing occasional outlier results.

If one accepts there’s a distribution curve of accuracy, then arguably you should be concerned if your methods don’t produce outliers.

Most of the time you should be in the same ballpark as everyone else. Occasionally you’ll over- or under-read the position. In aggregate you have a normal distribution. Isn’t this what MORI has?

by John R November 23rd, 2009 at 12:27 pm

260: You would need to really look at the whole range of polls not just one….

by Slackbladder November 23rd, 2009 at 12:29 pm



253 Questioning somebody’s accuracy and methodology is one thing, Jonny: questioning their integrity is quite another.

by Peter the Punter November 23rd, 2009 at 12:31 pm

258 Quite a few people in that thread said it was an outlier Mike. Perhaps there’s a difference between that and a ‘rogue’ but I think most people would take them as meaning the same thing?

by John R November 23rd, 2009 at 12:31 pm

258. OGH.


this is commenting on a previous outlier

As I recall it was pretty much universally laughed at at the time.

by LondonStatto November 23rd, 2009 at 12:32 pm

To be be fair, I think it was so over the top - you didn’t need to.

Within days, after the hilarity had passed, most people were saying they thought it was seriously OTT.

But they [we] enjoyed its effects.

Less so with this one. Obviously.

But what I also don’t see with that thread is any serious attempts by right wingers to analyse it and try to justify its accuracy and indeed, go further and by using selectively extracted info, try to make it look exaggerate it further.
Which is what some notable left wing posters did with this one.

There’s a difference between standing back and having a laugh and spinning.

by SallyC November 23rd, 2009 at 12:35 pm

139 Try East Dunbartonshire and Dunfermline West. That is 2 seats Labour is likely to regain from the LibDems as things stand at present.

On this poll malarky, of course if the Tories are really at 40% then MOE shows a range of 37-43% and if Labour are really on 28% then MOE shows a range of 25-31% so actually the Mori poll might really mask a Tory lead of 18%

I thought the most telling remark of the weekend was “Sir” Michael White 1st Baronet of Guardianistaville who when asked about the Mori poll said he expects David Cameron to win the GE with an overall majority.

Don’t Sir Bob Worcester and Prof John Curtice both belong to the “I could never say anything positive about the Cosnervative Party” group of psephologists? Maybe Curtice will get his knighthood from Gordon Brown before Labour loses power.

by Easterross November 23rd, 2009 at 12:36 pm

258 Mike, on the thread before that one when you first broke the figures I found this interesting comment -

“24.Poor MORI. They used to be such a respected pollster

by Roger September 17th, 2008 at 4:05 pm”


by Jonny Jimmy November 23rd, 2009 at 12:39 pm

Sky making the classic mistake of thinking that the FT are pro-capitalism. On Sky news they set up Maguire and George Parker to discuss the Conservatives economic ideas. A pair of anti-Conservatives now hammering into Cameron.

by TC November 23rd, 2009 at 12:46 pm

263. Meanwhile the ‘Hung Parliament’narrative is looking for Polls to act in support. This one appeared to do so, but is in fact an outlier, or a poll based on poor methodology.

Who’s next?

It’s interesting that The Sun and MORI parted company a while back. I didn’t know about that.

by Tapestry November 23rd, 2009 at 11:03 pm


It's lazy blogging, but political betting threads often carry a lot of good sense from a number of intelligent commenters. I am just a little more aggressive than most, in being prepared to ascribe intent to producers of polling results as requested by politicians. There was obviously a need for a poll giving credence to the Hung Parliament narrative, and so MORI had a go, in my opinion. '

If that is actionable to say so, we live in a very odd country, in my opinion, when it is so flippin obvious that truth is rarely put on public display, but we are to be penalised if we insist on saying that we do notice that we are being given a load of bullshit.

The next Poll on PB gave the Conservatives not a 6% lead but an 18% lead. You have to admit, something don't quite add up, folks.

I apologise for being so rude as to say so, but I really am not prepared to remain silent when the media folk are dishing out such a load of putrid garbage. It's a bloody insult to my intelligence to expect me to keep quiet in these circumstances. It's obvious what they are up to, and they deserve the egg all over their faces. I await the writ from the lawyers, but please don't expect people to keep quiet in the face such intense provocation. It is not reasonable.

PICTURED - a famous psephologist and my namesake, Professor Curtice (different spelling). All I can imagine, as an excuse, is the pollsters did not look at the detail of their poll until it was too late. One wonders in the light of the reception of this poll if any more 'Hung Parliament' polls will see the light of day.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Cameron Must Be Considering The Nuclear Option.




You cannot move anywhere in the political mediasphere without bumping into two words placed right in front of your eyes - Hung Parliament (HP).

The suggestion of a 'Hung Parliament' was unheard of until Cameron announced his post-Lisbon Treaty policies of repatriation of powers. All the evidence suggests that while there was a disappointment at the end of the Lisbon game when the Treaty was eventually signed, most Conservatives were content to move on to trying to repatriate powers as the next policy step. Cameron's new policy was received amongst Conservative supporters as being as good as could be expected.

There was no sign of a haemmorraging of support, or a resurgence to Labour or EUKIP. Cameron seemed to have got it about right.

But then strange things began to occur.

First Michael Heseltine and then Ken Clarke started talking about a Hung Parliament, which seemed most odd at the time.

Why would Conservatives be talking up Gordon Brown's electoral chances?

It was the fact that the HP narrative started where it did, inside the Conservative europhile wing, that gives its true source away. There has, indeed, been no big change in peoples' voting intentions, but there has been a big change in the plans of Britain's electoral manipulators.

The full force of postal voting maneouvres and ballot box tampering, as the boxes are stored overnight under new rules, will now be deployed to block David Cameron.

Expectations

Before an election can be successfully rigged, first the expectation of the desired result must be created in the minds of the electorate. So the Hung Parliament story is now being run and run at every opportunity, despite there being little change in the public's desire to get rid of Labour and try out David Cameron.

However, if the manipulators go ahead and keep the drip drip drip of the Hung Parliament narrative to the forefront, indicating their intention to rig the General Election to produce that result they desire, they could well put Cameron in a strategically 'nothing-to-lose' situation.

Cameron chose the minimally aggressive eurosceptic stance he could do during his speech just over two weeks ago, hoping to steer a course which kept the eurosceptics on board, as well as the EU and its acolytes. His attempt with the EU, however, instantly failed. In one hour he lost the support of the people who really decide who is allowed to win elections in Britain, and the effects to his electoral chances have, as a result, been catastrophic.

But this is not the final step in the game.



Going Nuclear

From here Cameron might decide that if he is going to be hung for stealing a lamb, he might as well be hung for a sheep. He could well decide, as he has less and less position to lose, to upgrade his eurosceptic manifesto offer, from threatening to attempt repatriation of powers, to going full-on EU-referendum, that is, offer an IN/OUT referendum, as his key electoral platform.

The opinion poll results of the next few weeks will be crucial, as he could only do this by mid-January at the latest. If the Hung Parliament narrative is built upon by the EU and successfully locked into Britain's national psyche, then, sure as eggs are eggs, that will be the certain sign that that election result will be achieved by rigging.

Cameron cannot go back to a Lisbon-compliant position. He can either sit where he is, and hope to tough out his current stance, or he could equally decide to go for it with the nations'e eurosceptics, who now claim to have a 55% majority in favour of EU withdrawal. If Cameron does decide to go for it, this will not be a battle plan of his own choosing, but one forced upon him. I would still think it unlikely to happen.

But if the powers that control Britain are seriously going to go about finally crushing what little is left of democracy in Britain, and block a Conservative majority, then the IN/OUT referendum offer is the last weapon left for Cameron to raise up, and cast at our enemies.

He has until about mid-January, when he will have to decide. He will prefer to wait and see for now, if perhaps, Brown's support can be further eroded by a deteriorating economic situation, or a financial crisis.

Meanwhile the drip drip drip of the Hung Parliament narrative can be seen and heard everywhere.

The battle lines are forming, and decisions will need to be taken.

Cameron offered to renegotiate with the EU over repatriation of powers, once Lisbon was signed.

The EU have responded by threatening to rig the election against him and deliver a Hung Parliament.

Where can Cameron find a way to unsettle the EU in reply?

He mentioned on Andrew Marr, that if an In/Out referendum were to be called, it would be won by the Outs, although he cleverly said that he would not ever have such a referendum, as an 'Out' vote is not in Britain's interests.

But, given the background to what's already going on, even saying that a In/Out referendum would go to 'Out' is tantamount to making a nuclear threat to the EU.

Will Cameron deploy the option of promising exactly such a referendum?

If the EU continues to proceed with its 'expectation of a Hung Parliament threat' over Cameron, he might well be tempted to do so. He is quite clearly thinking about the possibility, as otherwise why is the in/out referendum on anyone's lips? You can be sure the EU will be quite terrified of such a prospect.

It is possible that, when they weigh things up, they will prefer to have a Conservative majority with Cameron's proposed programme of renegotiation after all, rather than facing the uncertainties of a Hung Parliament, with a potential Prime Minister standing on a platform of an In/Out referendum.

The choice is for now with the EU. Cameron has to wait and see which way they skew.

If they don't back down from enforcing a Hung Parliament through their undoubted ability to rig the British election (as they did in 2005 with postal voting to keep Blair) and permit Cameron a majority, he will ultimately have no choice but to press the nuclear button, and beef up his manifesto to include the Thermo-Nuclear In/Out Referendum.

My guess is they will back down, once they've given the matter a little more thought. The longer they delay makes the pressure on Cameron to go nuclear all the greater, and the anger swelling up across Britain at the prospect of no progress on any EU negotiations, would be a powerful force to propel him into power, rigging or no rigging. The law of karma will ultimately overpower all attempts at its repeal, and that is one law that Cameron and Britain have well and truly on their side.

See Ben Brogan. He writes -

On Marr earlier he (Cameron) said: “I don’t want an ‘in or out’ referendum because I don’t think ‘out’ is in Britain’s interests.” An obvious point of course, but it’s useful to have on the record Dave’s belief that if we did have a referendum to, as the euro-sceptic euphemism has it, reassess our relationship with Europe, we would vote for the exit.

UPDATE, November 23rd 2009 - The recent MORI poll showing the closing of Cameron's lead from 14 to 6% is now available to assess in the detail. Stuart Dickson on Political Betting, wrote this comment this morning at about 7 am GMT -

I have only had a quick browse of the Ipsos MORI detailed data, but from what I have seen, the word ROGUE just screams out from the data. The most blatant example of a totally unbelievable figure is the Greater London split (Table 4):

Lab 38%
Con 31%
LD 20%
BNP 5%
Grn 3%
UKIP 0
oth 3%

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/poll_Monitor_Nov09web.pdf

I’m sorry Bob Worcester, but that is quite simply a total load of pants. This preposterous London sub-sample has significantly skewed the Great Britain-wide headline figures.

What on earth went wrong with Ipsos MORI’s London fieldwork?


It appears that someone is getting a bit desperate to provide some numbers to back up the 'Hung Parliament' narrative. MORI might only have been incompetent with their fieldwork, of course. But the narrative-writers must still be in the market for another 'rogue poll' to keep the narrative running!!!

Eurosceptic Cameron Is Dismissed


The Hung Parliament narrative is now unstoppable.

Since Cameron opened up his anti-Lisbon front, the Hung Parliament threat has been manufactured out of the blue. Polls are being rigged. Byelections too, to create the narrative.

With Cameron 15% ahead in reputable polls, the manipulators are now so confident that they get election results delivered on demand that they have decided to create a Hung Parliament to stop Cameron from taking on the Lisbon Treaty through renegotiation.

The extraordinary thing is to see commentators reacting as if all this is entirely normal. In a way it is. No one gives a shit about the whole situation, because they cannot understand it. Cameron will be sent packing. Britain will be in the Euro withing two years and no Conservative government will be permitted to win an election ever again.

We are ruled through deception and manipulation.

Until people wake up and realise what is happening, they will get away with it.

Cameron is over before he's even started. If only UKIP, BNP and the Greens could see how they are being used, but they are more interested in their own little games than the big picture.

The way to fight back is to explain to people that expectations are being manipulated to make the coming rigging of the general election appear to be as if normal, producing the 'éxpected' result.

Here is the MSM game explained. - This is all total bollocks.

The 'HP' narrative started two weeks ago.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Miliband's SS History Is Wrong


As I passed through Manchester Airport last week I picked up two titles which give you some idea as to my current state of mind. One is called DEFIANCE, written by Nechama Tec, published in 1993 by OUP. It describes a Jewish partisan group called The Bielski Otriad, which somehow survived in the forests of Belarus until the end of WW2.

The other is called RESISTANCE, written in French by Agnes Humbert, and published in English for the first time in 2008, published by Bloomsbury. This one describes the wartime experiences of the author as she helped set up the first resistance cell in Paris, was then betrayed and captured, and it catalogues her appalling experiences as a prisoner, at her trial, and then as a slave labourer in Nazi Germany through to the end of the war.

Both these books require a strong stomach to read, but they are impossible to put down, and are truly inspirational.

Agnes' story ends with her returning to France, but not before she had become effectively the intelligence arm for the American forces which liberated the area where she was enslaved. This last part of the book has many amazing revelations which are still relevant to this day, in explaining her views as to how guilt should be apportioned for the horrors of the war, and as to why and how the guilty were allowed to escape.



The picture she gives of the Americans is one of naivety, trusting any German that could speak English, and having no way of knowing if their denials of a NAZI past were true or false. The only way to sniff out those implicated from the innocent was to delve into the local communities and find out the real histories of the individuals who lived there. This she was able to do with her friends, establishing where the SS were hiding out in many cases.

As regards the freed French prisoners and slave workers, however, they were forbidden by their own government from pointing out to the Americans liberating them any Germans who had treated them humanely. She writes on p265,'It is quite superfluous, I'm sure, to spell out the reasons that might induce Vichy officers to issue orders of such a perplexing nature.'

I had always been told previously that the Americans deliberately overlooked Nazi guilt to enable Germany to be rebuilt quickly. This appears not to be the case from Agnes' experience. In her mind, they (Americans) simply didn't have enough understanding of the real evil of war, as they were relatively untouched by it themselves.

The banding together of the French with the Germans at the end of the war was not carried out in a new spirit of virtuous cooperation, as it is often presented today, but from a joint need to hide their crimes from the British and particularly the Americans. The opportunity to pull the guilty down across France and Germany, and replace them with those who had not been involved with crimes, was lost.

That is the basis on which the new Europe has been built, which goes a long way to explaining why democracies are being crushed anew by the Brussels bureaucracies, and the EU is incapable of acting other than in the way it does, corrupt, criminal and dismissive of individuals and longstanding democratic institutions.

As for the individuals fighting in the SS, which is where David Miliband has tried to pin blame on Kaminski, the Polish leader of the ECR in the EP, for permitting them to commemorate their lost comrades, Agnes Humbert has this to say -

'We now know with certainty that from January 1945 and perhaps earlier, raw recruits were assigned to the SS whether they were willing or not.'

What's interesting, overall, is that little David Miliband, who wants to make a stand against those he believes are guilty of killing his own ancestors, who he strangely associates with David Cameron! is in fact allying strongly with them himself - by his uncritical support of the EU, by advocating the destruction of British and other democracies, and by his own association with people whose secrets are well hidden, and who should have been exposed long ago.

The current EU leadership is too young to be directly involved in war crimes, but the culture of the EU was established well before Merkel and Sarkozy took over effective leadership.

The majority of NAZIs went unpunished at the end of the war, and remained in powerful positions in Germany and France, and they were instrumental in forming the EU as a way to disguise and cover their tracks.

As regards the SS, Miliband's chosen target to taunt the Conservatives with, Kaminski was right, and Miliabnd wrong. Many young men were press-ganged into joining the SS, as the war shredded the original SS membership, and the NAZIs needed replacements.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Narrative Creationists Threaten Cameron With A Hung Parliament


The ebb and flow of politics takes a new twist this week. Cameron's declared new policy of reptriating powers from the EU has sent his eurosceptic wing into a pleasant and profoundly content doze, despite great outpurrings of despair at betrayal by activists. Declaring in a relaxed and unaggressive style a programme of effective non-obedience to the Lisbon Treaty is in truth more than most of the 'sell-out' declarers feared they would get. But on the other hand, Cameron has delivered a nasty jolt to (e)utopians, who imagined Cameron would only offer token resistance.

(E)utopians, imagining themselves the main kids on the block, are not going to accept Cameron's new slant lying down, of course, and they will be looking at their various options, in the light of this shocking example of folly from Cameron. The first of these options is whether Cameron's electoral hopes can be halted in their tracks. Any election or referendum can be rigged to order these days, and while they had imagined a Cameron victory would be putting the next (e)compliant Blair into Downing Street, the election controllers would have permitted him his majority.

But now they are quite clearly contemplating another strategy - rigging the ballot to a far greater degree to the point where a Hung parliament results.

The first (e)utopian to come up with the suggestion of this strategy was Ken Clarke, Conservative (e)utopian number one. He boldly stated last week that another Labour victory would be a preferable result to a Hung Parliament, as if he somehow imagined a Hung Parliament to be the likely outcome of a GE, even with Conservative showing a consistent 14% lead over Labour over all polls....and he himself allegedly a Conservative!



Next out is Michael Thrasher, political commentator on Sky stating that he envisages a Hung Parliament as still a possible election result. See HERE. The pattern is emerging.

The reason is that, while elections in Britain can be rigged to order nowadays through the harvesting of postal votes, and ballot box adjustments made during overnight storage in a few key marginals, this cannot be done without raising suspicion, unless people already 'expect' the result that is actually delivered on the day. So the first job of an election rigging agency is to manage expectations.

And here you can see the beginnings of that exercise being carried out.

Cameron will need to urgently give out some encouraging messages to the (e)utopians to convince them that he has no real intention of repatriating powers, and that he only fears the loss of votes from minor eurosceptic parties. He can read the signs that any rebellion against EU power will not be tolerated. If he wants to win an election, he had better get his head straight. The votes don't matter. Eurosceptics don't matter. The people who control postal voting and overnight ballot box storage will decide the election result. He had better remember that.

The Guardian article quoting Ken Clarke is HERE.



Oh yes. And I nearly forgot another key (e)utopian, Michael Heseltine, also giving his opinion on BBC Hard Talk that a Hung Parliament is a 'very likely' result. Link HERE. That makes it a full house of the ageing Tory eurofanatics, talking down Cameron's chances.

The situation could not be clearer.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

The Future Course Of Politics Takes Shape.


While David Cameron talks of renegotiating repatriation of powers from the EU, one of his MPs thinks there is another way. Douglas Carswell who brought the motion to expel Michael Martin as Speaker, is starting a new initiative. He is one of the few remaining MPs who still believes in Parliament. He is young (relatively), incorruptible and will not back down.

Even with only one activist MP in Parliament, who operates beyond the system of media corruption, there is a chance that a political movement could be born from the back benches. With the Front Bench so hopelessly compromised, where else could the democratic revival of Britain come from?

Carswell could maybe persuade other MPs to join him in his campaign. It would be tantamount to creating a political party within a party, if he did. If Labour's vote collapses to 120, giving Cameron 450 seats, the only real opposition might become internal opposition.

The Party would not fracture, but it might provide its own opposition, forcing Cameron to hold a referendum to quell rebellion. Eurosceptics should be voting in as many COnservative MPs as they can.

Open Europe reports -

Meanwhile, PA reports that Conservative MP Douglas Carswell has sent an email to his constituents in which he wrote, "I want you to know that I have begun a campaign for a referendum on the EU.

All three parties promised us a referendum. Yet somehow it hasn't happened. I think that's wrong." He told his constituents it was "time to let the British people have their say...No one in Britain under the age of 52 has had the chance to vote in a referendum on Europe. For years it has been left to professional politicians and diplomats to decide EU policy. I believe it is now time to let the people have their say."


The referendum would need to be timed to a period when a majority of Britos want to quit the EU, which could still be three years away.

Monday, November 09, 2009

Vote Euroscepticism Into Power


This is the last post I will be sending onto The Tap for a bit. I'll be back but have personal business to attend to, which necessitates absence from the UK til roughly March.

I will be back before the General Election.

My thoughts for eurosceptics who doubt Cameron are this.

You should still vote for him.

Why?

Because UKIP is a wasted vote, as is BNP.

There is potentially a far more fruitful source of rebellion against Cameron, if he goes slow on his EU repatriation of powers programme, from inside the Conservative Party. People like Bill Cash, Douglas Carswell will be sure to wind up the situation if they see Cameron backsliding on his promises.

They will be able to be far more aggressive in attack if Cameron has a big majority, and equally, he can be far more tolerant of revolt.

The problem is now that the public need to be educated as to why Britain is in such a mess. The more Conservative eurosceptic MPs there are to fuel a rebellion, the more the public will get to hear of EU issues. If Cameron gets a majority of 200 plus, these MPs can open up quicker and more frequently, becoming the effective opposition.

There could be more Conservative MPs opposing Cameron than Labour MPs. That would be a much better situation for eurosceptics. Backing UKIP is the same as backing Labour. Why would any sensible eurosceptic wish to assist the enemy?

Cameron with 450 plus seats would be an unstoppable force. That level of victory is currently 12-1 at the bookies. In six months time, however that could come about, if all eurosceptics rallied and voted as one.

There could be two Conservtaive Parties in the House Of Commons, the loyals and the sceptics, a rerun of the wets and the drys all over again. Think About It. The drys can achieve far more to stop the wets if they can hold a Commons majority on their own. Conservative europhiles are a tiny minority. If Cameron proves to be the traitor some seem to believe he will be (I don't), he could easily be toppled by the vast majority of his own euroscetic MPs.

VOTE CONSERVATIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And keep voting Conservative.

Fell The Wall. Your vote is the sledgehammer that euroscepticism requires. Labour with 100 MPs. Conservative with 500. The EU would be finished, and UKIP out of a job.

Yes Richard. This Is A Thriller.


Richard North writes to me on www.eureferendum.com comments - 'Have you ever tried writing thrillers?'.

No need. And no point. Fact is stranger than fiction. That is where you scientists come unstuck. You always want events to be logical. The plain and simple truth is never plain and rarely simple.(paraphrase of Oscar).

You are requiring Cameron to be a bigger writer of fiction with your theories, than anything I have said. I merely describe what I see. I remember a meeting with his earlier adviser just as he won the leadership. Few words were spoken, but I took a read from that meeting in which I tried to discuss possible tactics for the issue of the EU. Effectively my ideas were rebuffed. But in a way which puzzled me at the time, and I have often gone back to it in my mind since. There was and is definitely a deliberate attempt being made to park the issue.

But that, I am equally convinced, tells you absolutely nothing about the future course of events once Cameron wins power. Follow the words that are used by Hague on priorities. And judge from Hague's general demeanour, his amazing, almost deliberate weakness and look of a wimp desperate to cave in as soon as he can. Yes this is certainly a game of bluff and double bluff.

I'm pleased you now see the wall, which must tumble. But before we tumble the wall, we have to get to it.


I have never received so much abuse before, as I have received, from commenters from eureferendum, after writing my initial comments there suggesting a possible strategy that Cameron may be following. The political internet is not for wimps. There are some nasty folks out there. Richard North attracts a few, but is not one himself. He gets frustrated and very angry, but he holds the level - just about - although the sexual cartoons of Cameron might make it impossible for him to be seen on platforms with those who seek future position. They are not that funny. Why bother to publish them on a serious blog?



As I could not place my comment this morning on eureferendum, I'm parking it here.

ONE MORE THOUGHT -

Eurosceptics who doubt Cameron should want him to have the biggest majority possible.

Why's that?

Because the job now is to educate the public.

It would be possible for him to 'tolerate' open rebellion amongst MPs over the EU, if he has a huge majority, Conservative eurosceptic MPs against Cameron, with Labour down 122 MPs, as one prediction today, would become the effective opposition. The ensuing battle between a brilliant sheep impersonator, and his rebellious MPs would become the story, the narrative.

From there the public could be educated.

'Cameron the sheep'-haters should therefore vote for him in droves, so they can then form a Parliamentary sub-group, in opposition to any sell-outs.

If Cameron only has a majority of 60, he would have to silence opposition in his own ranks. If he has a majority of 200, he could tolerate a certain amount of noise.

Sunday, November 08, 2009

Hague On Marr Show Re EU

From 10 am Sunday morning 8th November 2009

Marr - re Afghanistan

Hague - we need to communicate with the public more evenly. the communication is news driven , which means casualty driven. It needs regular reporting of the situation. People have to see there is a strategy they can believe. In the new strategy, coming from Obama, there needs to a strong civilian effort, not a pro-consul, a powerful coordinating figure from the international community.

Marr - difficult public spending situation..

Hague - there hasn't been a stragegic defence review for ten years. In 2004 Labour cut the helicopter budget by 1.5 billion. a big mistake.

Marr - did you seriously think you would go ahead with a Lisbon referendum.

Hague - it's not a simple matter and needs explaining. Referendum can no longer stop the Lisbon Treaty going ahead.

Marr - your new proposals are locks on stable door minus a horse.

Hague - a particluar horse. whenever any government transfers powers to Europe, there will be a referendum.

Marr - there won't be a transfer of power or a traety for years.

M - social and welfare policy? paternity leave. 4 weeks holiday

H - not those, but things like agency regulations. things we can ask for which are damaging our economy.

m - eu says don't make a list of demands. we're not interested

h. we have to pick our time. no quick 6 months bust up

m - nothing will happen

h - it will. i am determined. the economic problems will be on our mind 24 hours a day. we don't need a crisis with the EU.

m - so it's business as usual

h - we will be working with our EU partners.

m -

h - we will challenge other parties to agree about a Sovereignty Bill.

m - it's a gift to ukip

h - we cannot pander to fringe parties

h - fringe parties will have no impact, if you want change, vote conservative

m - abuse from foreign ministers. business as usual.

h - steady promotion of our national interest. we will be tough negotiators.

m - MP's expenses..........................

Eurosceptics Plan Their Next Match


The Eurosceptics in the media are putting up a big moan this week, at the end of the lost 'Stop The Lisbon Treaty' game. Cameron is being accused of deception by one and all, failure to keep promises and so on. But really it's time to grow up, Eurosceptics, and look to the next match. You lost Lisbon 6-0. Now stop blaming the Captain.

He played a good game. He was let down by the Irish Goal-keeper and the Czech striker, but their poor contribution was caused mostly by injury, and disgraceful off-field behaviour of opponents. The Captain did his best.

Of course, it's disappointing when your team gets stuffed in an important match. But the Season is still going on, and if the moaning attitude doesn't stop, the team could end up being relegated. There's still everything to play for.

The problem is that you have an excellent Team Captain, but as he was trained in the West London Upper League, spending time with the Bullingdon Lodge, many of the solid team-supporters from around the regions can't quite get what he's on about.

Allow me fill in the gaps in what Cameron is saying, for you.

'You guys can start pulling the wall down, and I won't send in the cops or the army. The judges will be overridden by the Sovereignty of Parliament, or other pressures we can deploy.

If the Feds send in the cops or the army from over there, the political consequences would be big enough to bring a majority referendum for out
.

Now come on, Fellas. Play your part of the game. And stop yer moaning. This is the big EUSSR match we've been talking about a long time. We know how to deal with USSRs. We sorted one of those not all that long ago. The best tactic is to take apart their defensive wall, by getting their excessive number coaches all falling out with each other.

The match team talk will be delayed until after the supporters have chosen the new manager and directors. The last ones have unfortunately bankrupted the Club. Don't worry, we have backers from City. Later this year, betting on The Metric League Cup is expected to swing heavily in favour of the Martyrs. Chin up, Lads, and get back to work.'

Saturday, November 07, 2009

Farage And Miliband Don't Get Cameron


Farage is trying to raise capital out of the latest Conservative EU policy statement given by Cameron on Thursday. Writing in The Guardian, he expands his argument thus -

The Dutch said: "There is more chance of a snowball surviving hell than the EU restarting debates on treaty change."

The Poles said: "Without having Brussels and other European capitals on side, London will be marginalised."

The Spanish likewise: "I do not know of a single country in Europe that now thinks we should be spending any time to change the treaty we have just spent eight years negotiating. It is really, really impossible."

My old sparring partner, Dick Roche, in Ireland points out: "There is a complete aversion across Europe to the idea of going through the kind of process we have just gone through for the last 10 years."

And the French in their characteristically brusque way have said that "it is out of the question that there would be any renegotiations".

Fat chance Dave. And you know it.


But Nigel, it's much simpler than that. To the word 'NO' there is no argument or negotiation offered or required. It's the language of non-recognition, non-obedience, non-compliance, call it what you will. Cameron is saying 'NO. I am not playing this game any more.'

He's not asking or negotiating. He's telling - something Nigel Farage cannot yet fathom. Here is a eurosceptic Conservative Prime Minister-to be, getting ready to say what he wants to happen, and who doesn't recognise the moral or democratic legitimacy of the EU as it applies to Britain.

The Dutch, the Poles, the French and anyone else can line up and express irritated opinions, but if Cameron's not playing, Cameron's not playing. NO does not need a vote. NO does not need any more hesitation or thought. NO is NO. It is final.

The Germans are strangely silent. The one comment from a Die Welt journalist speaking on Newsnight was that many people in Germany feel that Cameron is expressing exactly what they feel about the EU. It's gone too far and has to stop.

Now Nigel Farage, you didn't mention that side of the conversation, did you!!!

PICTURE - Farage outside the institution that, this week, has banned him and all other MEPs from having passes. Will he soon walk inside as an elected representative?

Maybe he will, but his old anti-Conservative lines are ageing fast in the new era of Conservative open EU-disobedience. He will need to find a new angle of attack as the Lisbon Treaty period, and taking the EU game and its all preposterous self-importance seriously, is passing. The bogeymen are no longer conforming to type. Cameron is incorruptible.

Without the same old easy targets, snake-like Blair, secretive brooding Brown, evil lying Clegg, or merely wimpy old Hague, Farage's raison d'etre will just fade away. He must be sensing the change and wondering how and where his new lines will come from. The new generation will soon be taking over. For Farage, life will never be the same.

Another politician who cannot fathom Cameron's approach to the EU is David Miliband.

David Miliband said this morning at the Fabian Conference that they will be campaigning against Cameron on his new EU policy as being either meaningless or dangerous, as it will lead to Britain leaving the EU.

But David, if it's meaningless, it's not dangerous. And if it's dangerous, it's not meaningless. And if it is dangerous, Farage is out of a job.

Herr Britler Prepares For Gotterdamerung


With news that the GE might be called to take place earlier than previously thought, before Budget Day, possibly on March 25th, I had the following thoughts to offer on CH.

Damn. I just arranged with my company to come back to the UK in April. Could Gordon Brown possibly reconsider?

Mind you Cameron can get at the Finances two months earlier. OK. Yes. That is more important.

Brown has transformed again.

At first he was described as Labour's answer to Stalin.

Then Vince Cable realised he was more like the selfish and incompetent Mr Bean.

This was followed later by comparison to tragedy incorporated, Heathcliff from Wuthering Heights.

But now, amidst the dying embers of his regime, it's 1945 all over again. Britler is back in his bunker. With Tory artillery landing on the roof, he's determined to destroy the ungrateful country that failed him.

General Cameron's tanks have reached the Thames Embankment. The Failure's preparing suicide pills for Mandelson and Milband, as he reaches for his revolver.


See Scorched Earth Policy on CH.

Helmer Hannan and Cash Are Out Of Time


The three flouncers, who declared public opposition to the abandonment of a referendum on Lisbon, as named above, received scant support. Two years ago, Conservative eurosceptics would have been cheering from the rafters, egging them on. So why not now?

One reason is that it's only months away from an election, and no matter how much justification there might be for a flounce, there is more appetite for winning power, than there can be for any policy.

Another is that Cameron's new policy is not without interest to eurosceptics. Yes Lisbon is signed and all its hateful terms will now be applied with glee by the obnoxious creeps who adore and staff the EU, which must stick in the craw for those who had hoped that it would be stopped. But the moment Lisbon was lost, it makes sense to move onto a Lisbon non-recognition and non-cooperation platform which is what Cameron has done.

But third the lack of support for the flouncers tells you one more thing. Cameron is winning support,not just because he wears a Conservative badge, but because people like him and want him to be Prime Minister.

That is the biggest change of all. When he was acting the me-too Blair pre-Blair's resignation, he was detested by eurosceptics who believed they had been sold a pup. But up against Brown, Cameron has grown in confidence and stature, to the point where he provides reassurance to people.

The times are worrying, and trouble, we all can see, is on its way. Here is one possibility for Britain to at last find a Prime Minister capable of running the country well, at a time when we need good government. People sense that, and so the appetite for rebellion against Cameron, which was strong in 2006 and 2007, is now almost non-existent.

Here is the first sign that the Conservatives are now truly a united force. The DUP are on board. The eurosceptics. People from right across the country are getting ready to rally to drive Labour out of power, sick of the bankrupt mess they have created.

Blair's attempt on President was pushed to one side with one puff by Cameron. Miliband is merely nuisance value as EU Foreign Secretary, and good advertising of how arrogant personal ambition has sent Labour and Britain into a political blind ally.

Cameron's moment is here.

The only criticism in the media is coming from the Daily Mash.

Revealingly the first line of the 'bit of a fishing trip' article tells it all -

Mr Hague received a mauling from Conservative candidates disappointed at the leader's U-Turn on Europe..

The article continues,

Mark Reckless, an ally of Tory MEP Daniel Hannan, who stood down from the frontbench in Brussels in protest at the policy change, hit out at Mr Hague's handling of the affair.

He said Mr Cameron's plans offered 'three proposals to entrench the status quo' in Brussels rather than 'reverse the process'.
He asked Mr Hague: 'Do you understand the sense of disappointment with regard to you personally?'

But Mr Hague stressed that voters are more interested in the economy and schools than in Europe as an issue.


But, even here, not a glove was laid on David Cameron.

Friday, November 06, 2009

French Want Cameron Castrated.


In an interview on the BBC's Newsnight last night, French Foreign Minister Pierre Lellouche attempted to explain his comments that Conservative policy on Europe was "autistic" and would "castrate" UK influence in Europe, saying they had been mistranslated.

How exactly, one wonders can the word 'castration' be mistranslated?


He said that, in his relations with William Hague, "On Europe it seems like we cannot talk...I've been talking to him over the year and it doesn't make a dent. There's no listening, no exchange on this."

The Guardian notes that Hague dismissed the comments, saying "We won't be put off by one emotional outburst from one minister. I think more senior members of the French government would take a more careful approach." He added, "We will stick up for our national interests, which French ministers never fail to do, by the way."


German opinion seems more supportive.

speaking on Newsnight, Die Welt's London Correspondent Thomas Kielinger said that there had been an over-reaction to Cameron's speech by many European politicians.

He added, "There are a lot of eurosceptics in Germany on the ground - people who feel rather sympathetic to the way Britain is trying to re-evaluate what Europe is about, what Brussels should be - who don't speak up because the powers that be in my country are holding such a strong hold over public opinion that they won't let these voices come to the fore."


Quotes from Open Europe.

Vote Fraud In Britain

North Asks Where Cameron's Big Stick Will Come From


Richard North has decided that because he cannot see a big stick that therefore one does not exist. And because no EU renegotiation can occur without a basis of threat, he sees Cameron's position on EU renegotiation as fundamentally a lie.

That is to misunderstand the basis on which people give their consent to political leadership or government. While the economy prospers and people are making money they will agree to nearly everything done by their governments. When the economy turns nasty, then the opposite process kicks in and people attack their governments over nearly everything, and kick them out.

The western economies have been through many long years of debt-fuelled growth. The debt cycle has now topped and people are retrenching, bringing the economy down step by step. Only massive government spending which is unsustainable, is keeping the wolf from the door, and holding up the political cycle at the moment. This cannot go on much longer, and all the money is being used to prop up asset markets, which are rising at their fastest pace ever in history.

When the mood changes over to 'bear' mentality again, which it will, Cameron's programme of repatriating powers will move from a minority sport supported by a few to a majority position, from a population angry and wanting revenge. Cameron cannot go in advance of the economic and social mood changes. He has to ride them. It would have been unthinkable for a speech such as the one just made by Cameron, to have been heard pre-2008. But after that autumn briefly shocked the world, and kicked many places into a downward spiral, a new politics becomes possible.

This is the one factor that you are not considering, Richard. The EU is an expensive 'bull market' political phenomenon. The bear will bring it down. Cameron is ahead of the wave, and is waiting to ride on it. He cannot create a force that will undo the works of a generation, but he can take the political ride which the next phase will offer. One man cannot create the events you desire, but he can anticipate them. If you start to see events as less directly 'this causes this therefore this', you would have more scope to tolerate human failings such as the odd deception or even outright lie.

After all Macchiavelli instructed us that politicians have to lie, but they must try not to be seen as liars nonetheless. See the rise and fall of events, of empires, of economies, and see the big forces that shape the world as unstoppable by any human being, and don't expect one mere mortal to change the fundamental basis of life for you. It will ease your political thinking, and get you out of your scientifically minded trench.

Cameron can be depicted as King Knut trying to hold up the waves, as you like to see him. Equally he could be seen as someone reading the tides and seeing that there is a change on its way. He's just moving his boat down the beach, to where the flow will lift him up and set him on his way. The force is the sea, not the boat.

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Sarkozy Attacks UK Wallet. Perfect!!!!



Angry French Europe Minister Lellouche, speaking on behalf of French President Sarkozy, lashed out today at Cameron's new European proposals, and went straight for the wallet.

From First Post -

If the Tories are elected next May/June and carry out their pledge to repatriate powers from Brussels, Lellouche warned the French would seek to reduce Britain's EU budget rebate.

"If we get a government that is ferociously anti-European, that will vote down this kind of legislation, then I think the relationship is going to be very difficult. As we enter the next phase, one of the issues we have to discuss mid-term is, of course, finances.


Wonderful!!!!

Just what we need, some scalded cat Frenchmen, offering to fight red-blooded Brits about money. Except, that is not the top of Cameron's shopping list, as it happens. The French have skipped the real agenda, which is about sovereignty, and tried to pull Cameron into a slugging match over cash. Surely they realise an Old Etonian would not lower himself to that level.

The more violent and vicious the attacks on Cameron from abroad, the more his wobbly eurosceptic wing will rally round him. To the eurosceptics, a referendum to stop Lisbon is the only acceptable medicine, but a verbal punch-up with Sarkozy would go a long way to providing an alternative means of satisfaction.

Cameron need only smile politely in return as Hague did in his BBC interview, as awful words were spoken accusing him of autism and worse.

The BBC stooges, as usual, spoke as if on the side of the French, and the opinions of viewers will no doubt swing against the EU in droves, as a result.

If the EU heads for the British wallet, they could not possibly do more to assist Cameron in his political hour of need.

PICTURE - Poison Dwarf Sarko, whose glamorous wife Carla Bruni towers above him, finds the only piece of beach where he can look the same height as her!!

Meanwhile - from Oracle -

Clearly Labour are very confused about what line to take, and rightly so I think. They veer between ‘Cameron retreat shows he’s a Europhile after all’ and ‘Cameron’s extreme Eurosceptic line causes rift with our European allies’.!!!!!!!!

Vive La Confusion..!